Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

48 0x486e…49f6 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$150 (+25%) realized +$156 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip

Net edge+18%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate47%9W / 10L

Drawdown67%max

Avg bet$28per market

Trades / day15.0pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)+28.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+41.5%	+28.0%	47%	47%	+16.3%
≤30d	19	+41.5%	+28.0%	47%	47%	+16.3%
≤90d	19	+41.5%	+28.0%	47%	47%	+16.3%
all	19	+41.5%	+28.0%	47%	47%	+16.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover15.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+28.0%	47%	+16.3%
10%	+15.8%	47%	+5.2%
15%	+4.6%	47%	-5.0%
20%	-5.7%	42%	-14.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 48% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +42% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +115% → late -25% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$36 vs −$18 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$81

Realized+$156

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses9 / 10

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions2

Markets (closed)19 / 21

History coverage2d

Avg bet$28

Trades / day15.0

Drawdown67%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Colombia	47¢	44¢	$86	$79	−$7 (-8%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia?	Yes	16¢	20¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+22%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$5	+$2	+43%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$84	+$83	+99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$15	−$15	-98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-96%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$24	−$23	-98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 17	$41	−$40	-97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$21	+$21	+101%
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Jun 17	$65	+$71	+110%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan?	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$3	+$5	+160%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$67	+$68	+102%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$1	+$10	+959%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$3	+$4	+132%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$67	+$56	+84%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-96%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	Jun 16	$26	−$25	-97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-97%
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Jun 15	$68	−$66	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia?	BUY Yes	16¢	$1	34m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY Colombia	49¢	$4	35m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY Colombia	48¢	$5	43m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY Colombia	47¢	$79	1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$7	1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	68¢	$5	2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$5	13h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$5	13h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$79	13h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	13h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	54¢	$3	13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	54¢	$10	13h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	54¢	$20	13h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	30¢	$41	13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	100¢	$41	20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	100¢	$135	20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	48¢	$21	20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	46¢	$21	22h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	46¢	$3	22h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan?	BUY Yes	16¢	$1	22h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	48¢	$5	22h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	46¢	$41	23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	SELL Argentina	100¢	$8	23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$135	23h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	SELL Yes	100¢	$11	23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	47¢	$21	25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$46	25h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1	25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	37¢	$3	25h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	14¢	$1	38h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.57 · official $82.39 · 40 history records