Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:48:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
48 0x486c…b796 crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate81%39W / 9L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$364per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% $0
sports 38% −$6
culture 12% $0
other 3% +$1
world 1% +$2
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +10.5% -0.0% 100% 25% -6.5%
≤30d 4 +10.5% -0.0% 100% 25% -6.5%
≤90d 12 -0.8% -10.3% 92% 25% -9.0%
all 48 -4.4% -13.5% 81% 15% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 15% -9.5%
10% -21.8% 6% -18.2%
15% -29.4% 2% -26.1%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses39 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)48 / 52
History coverage235d
Avg bet$364
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $129 $130 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 21 $6 +$3 +42%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 21 $35 $0 +0%
Suns vs. Thunder May 19 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 19 $139 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Nets vs. 76ers Apr 19 $1 $0 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Wizards vs. Celtics Apr 19 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 19 $127 +$1 +1%
Kings vs. Clippers Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Nets Mar 14 $2 $0 +16%
Will Solana reach $150 in February? Mar 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? Mar 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? Feb 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $14 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Jazz Feb 15 $1 $0 +18%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Feb 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 22 $2,207 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 22 $391 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 22 $2,258 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 22 $331 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 22 $2,708 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 22 $2,239 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 22 $255 +$1 +0%
Knicks vs. Pelicans Dec 30 $1 $0 +32%
Warriors vs. Nets Dec 30 $2,202 +$2 +0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 30 $2,200 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Spurs Dec 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Dec 29 $1 $0 +4%
76ers vs. Thunder Dec 29 $2 $0 +15%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 28 $2,712 −$3 -0%
Steelers vs. Browns Dec 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 7? Dec 20 $3 $0 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 20 $70 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 20 $166 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Nov 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118,000 on October 29? Nov 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Nov 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Nov 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.10 and $2.20 on October 29? Nov 04 $226 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $82 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 33d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 33d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 33d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 70¢ $6 33d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $139 63d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 77¢ $5 63d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 90¢ $20 63d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 99d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 99d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $21 99d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 99d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 99d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 99d
Nets vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 77¢ $1 99d
Kings vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 88¢ $5 99d
Wizards vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 95¢ $10 99d
Spurs vs. Nets BUY Spurs 86¢ $2 115d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? BUY No 100¢ $24 115d
Will Solana reach $150 in February? BUY No 100¢ $20 115d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 126d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 BUY No 100¢ $20 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $20 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $60 126d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 126d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 126d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.84 · official $174.84 (match) · 295 history records