Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x486c…a7f4 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$64 (-2%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate19%9W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$6
other 27% −$22
sports 6% −$37
crypto 4% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 15 +2.8% -7.0% 20% 7% -8.1%
≤90d 35 -10.9% -19.4% 17% 6% -14.3%
all 47 -8.3% -17.0% 19% 4% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 4% -11.6%
10% -24.9% 4% -20.0%
15% -32.2% 4% -27.8%
20% -38.8% 2% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses9 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage630d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $64 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $13 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $11 +$5 +44%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $57 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 12 $9 +$6 +73%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $106 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $54 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $52 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $53 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 18 $50 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 11 $24 +$1 +5%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Flames vs. Golden Knights Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Pelicans vs. Raptors Apr 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: O/U 156.5 Mar 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 26 $47 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 05 $90 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $98 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 03 $33 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $13 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $236 −$1 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $161 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $601 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 3d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 9d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 11d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 11d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 19d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 20d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 21d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 21d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 21d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 25d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 25d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $23 25d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $11 26d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 26d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $11 27d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $13 27d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $13 27d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 28d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $55 29d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $55 29d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 30d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.20 · official $41.20 (match) · 238 history records