Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:04:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4867…7703 crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$55 (+7%) realized +$60 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$4
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$36
other 31% +$55
sports 1% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -14.7% -22.8% 42% 42% -8.0%
≤30d 33 -1.2% -10.6% 39% 36% -5.0%
≤90d 33 -1.2% -10.6% 39% 36% -5.0%
all 33 -1.2% -10.6% 39% 36% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 36% -5.0%
10% -19.2% 36% -14.1%
15% -27.0% 33% -22.4%
20% -34.1% 27% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$19 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$60
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage8d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$12 +61%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $15 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$23 +56%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$40 +156%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $27 +$201 +756%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$5 -51%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 90¢ $33 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 19h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $23 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 24h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 24h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.46 · official $42.46 (match) · 77 history records