Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:42:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4867…ab1e world 28 markets active 15h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$1
other 7% $0
crypto 6% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.3% -10.7% 22% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 17 -0.0% -9.5% 35% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 17 -0.0% -9.5% 35% 6% -9.6%
all 28 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 4% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage452d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $141 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $14 −$1 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $7 +$1 +11%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $19 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $86 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 26 $11 $0 +4%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Trump x Xi talk by Friday? Apr 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1300 on Apr 18? Apr 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Apr 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $12 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Mar 24 $12 $0 -2%
Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke Mar 23 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $9 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $15 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $29 15h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 29h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 29h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 31h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $34 38h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 38h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $40 39h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $21 43h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $22 47h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $13 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $45 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $45 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $25 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $25 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $14 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records