Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:28:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4867…2c00 crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$65 (+5%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$71
other 16% −$16
sports 3% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -8.0% -16.7% 53% 50% -7.8%
≤30d 34 -8.0% -16.7% 53% 50% -7.8%
≤90d 34 -8.0% -16.7% 53% 50% -7.8%
all 34 -8.0% -16.7% 53% 50% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 50% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 41% -16.6%
15% -32.0% 26% -24.6%
20% -38.7% 21% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$22 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage2d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 86¢ 86¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $76 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$68 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $180 −$36 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$24 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $105 −$37 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$35 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $77 +$19 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$25 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$21 +42%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$59 +276%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $35 −$14 -39%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$15 +152%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $46 −$25 -55%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $32 +$36 +113%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 +$3 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $30 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $29 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $30 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $35 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $56 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $58 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $51 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $29 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $75 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $56 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $15 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.03 · official $25.03 (match) · 101 history records