Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x4867…a6f8
finance · 359 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,695 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,094 · open −$601
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$365
Realized−$2,094
Unrealized−$601
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses124 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)345 / 359
Avg bet$576
Trades / day133.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 14 History 345 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days−$330
14 days−$1,074
30 days−$2,094
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? No 69¢ 16¢ $500 $112 −$388 (-78%)
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-1%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June? No 96¢ 96¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Yes 92¢ 70¢ $52 $40 −$12 (-23%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Yes 89¢ 42¢ $73 $35 −$38 (-52%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in June? No 97¢ 95¢ $30 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? No 90¢ 86¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-5%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Down 48¢ 19¢ $35 $14 −$21 (-60%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 95¢ 9¢ $99 $10 −$90 (-90%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June? Yes 66¢ 10¢ $50 $8 −$42 (-84%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Up 65¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 8 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-88%)
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate Primary by more than 50%? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will Tom Steyer win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by less than 5%? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $121 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? Jun 12 $53 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6,644 −$2 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $46 $0 +0%
Will PPI YoY be between 7.0% and 7.9% in May? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $3,932 −$6 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1,321 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $200 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 11 $30 −$13 -43%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $927 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $53 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $2,688 +$42 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? Jun 11 $96 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $102 $0 -0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $256 +$5 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 11 $1,895 −$10 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $607 −$1 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $393 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 11? Jun 11 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $1,777 +$20 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $2,929 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $315 $0 -0%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $283 +$3 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 11 $121 $0 -0%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $197 +$2 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $420 $0 +0%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 10 $1,521 +$6 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 10 $1,297 −$25 -2%
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit? Jun 10 $0 $0 -40%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1,025 +$13 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1,170 +$27 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $4,640 +$7 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $1,952 +$28 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 10 $546 −$3 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $13 +$20 +163%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? Jun 10 $178 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in May? Jun 10 $0 $0 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $500 $0 +0%
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Jun 10 $51 $0 +1%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $136 +$1 +1%
Will Billy Webster win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic pri Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will David Atchley be the Republican nominee for SC-04? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 9? Jun 10 $147 −$147 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 55% −$223
finance 25% −$2,310
other 8% +$82
tech 6% −$139
politics 3% +$49
culture 1% −$154
crypto 1% −$1
sports 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 65¢ $1 45m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 58¢ $6 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 56¢ $6 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 48¢ $35 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 55¢ $51 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 55¢ $3 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 55¢ $28 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 55¢ $82 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 56¢ $25 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 56¢ $3 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 55¢ $58 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 55¢ $28 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 55¢ $113 2h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? SELL No 92¢ $35 2h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? SELL No 92¢ $18 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $9 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $55 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $9 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $74 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 58¢ $46 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 58¢ $46 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 48¢ $2 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 48¢ $2 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 51¢ $3 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 51¢ $3 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 3¢ $35 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 3¢ $35 5h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $48 9h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 9h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $52 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -6.9% -15.8% 39% 1% -10.0%
≤30d 345 +1.3% -8.3% 36% 2% -10.5%
≤90d 345 +1.3% -8.3% 36% 2% -10.5%
all 345 +1.3% -8.3% 36% 2% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover133.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 2% -10.5%
10% -17.1% 2% -19.1%
15% ← realistic here -25.1% 1% -26.9%
20% -32.5% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364.90 · official $364.87 (match) · 3500 history records