Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:17:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4865…0e90 world 156 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$51 (-4%) realized −$25 · open −$37
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate54%67W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$39
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$5
other 24% −$28
politics 19% −$71
sports 19% +$28
culture 3% +$6
economics 1% +$13
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -67.9% -71.0% 0% 0% -71.0%
≤30d 35 +10.5% +0.0% 54% 37% -8.7%
≤90d 123 +9.1% -1.3% 54% 41% -11.6%
all 123 +9.1% -1.3% 54% 41% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 41% -11.6%
10% -10.7% 33% -20.0%
15% -19.4% 21% -27.8%
20% -27.3% 19% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses67 / 56
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions33
Markets (closed)123 / 156
History coverage78d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 55¢ 80¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+45%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 78¢ 79¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 23¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+110%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 70¢ 54¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Weed rescheduled by June 30? No 72¢ 98¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+36%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 77¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 34¢ 22¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 79¢ 83¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 91¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass? Yes 98¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 48¢ 88¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+84%)
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026? Yes 37¢ 29¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 42¢ 28¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
X banned in any European country by December 31? Yes 53¢ 30¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? Yes 34¢ 18¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-49%)
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? Yes 16¢ $10 $2 −$7 (-75%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 36¢ 14¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes 41¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 03 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.0% by the end of May? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$6 -58%
Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +10%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31? Jun 01 $10 −$5 -45%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $6 +$2 +27%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $5 −$2 -47%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? May 27 $5 $0 +6%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 27 $5 +$1 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $10 −$2 -25%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $5 $0 +6%
Will "Mobile Suit Gundam GQuuuuuuX" win Best Original Anime at the 202 May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "SPY x FAMILY Season 3" win Best Comedy Anime at the 2026 Crunchy May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during swearing-in? May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN - Map 1 Winner May 22 $5 +$3 +58%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) May 22 $5 +$8 +156%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - CS Asia Championship May 21 $5 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 21 $5 +$2 +40%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? May 21 $5 +$33 +636%
Will the Long Island Rail Road strike end by May 22, 2026? May 19 $5 $0 +7%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 19 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.5% by the end of May? May 18 $5 $0 +3%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? May 17 $5 −$1 -12%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) May 17 $5 +$6 +121%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) May 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) May 16 $5 +$7 +132%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026? May 16 $10 +$13 +129%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $10 $0 -3%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $5 +$3 +64%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs The Huns Esports (+1.5) May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m? May 11 $5 +$24 +459%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $5 +$2 +31%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $20 −$5 -23%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) May 09 $5 +$6 +126%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) May 09 $5 +$5 +103%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less tha May 08 $7 $0 +5%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%? May 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%? May 08 $5 $0 +8%
Will Trump post "Secret Service" on Truth Social this week? May 04 $10 −$4 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 37m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 38m
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 56m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 59m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.82 · official $152.67 (match) · 841 history records