Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4864…380a crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$222 (-13%) realized −$222 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate47%25W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day30.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$332
other 7% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -18.9% -26.6% 47% 36% -24.3%
≤30d 53 -18.9% -26.6% 47% 36% -24.3%
≤90d 53 -18.9% -26.6% 47% 36% -24.3%
all 53 -18.9% -26.6% 47% 36% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.6% 36% -24.3%
10% ← realistic here -33.7% 26% -31.5%
15% -40.1% 25% -38.2%
20% -45.9% 17% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$23 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$222
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses25 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage4d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$17 +317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$16 +63%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$52 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$18 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $77 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $88 −$58 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$17 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $57 +$66 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $78 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$13 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $27 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $22 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $42 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $78 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records