Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4863…121f crypto 367 markets active 6d ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,339 (-20%) realized −$3,339 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%144W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$62
14 days−$81
30 days−$1,265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$4,069
world 3% +$535
sports 1% −$125
other 0% −$79
politics 0% +$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 293 -7.4% -16.2% 43% 43% -22.9%
≤90d 319 -11.7% -20.1% 40% 40% -28.5%
all 367 -14.1% -22.3% 39% 39% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 39% -29.0%
10% -29.7% 38% -35.8%
15% -36.5% 38% -42.0%
20% -42.8% 37% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$46 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,339
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses144 / 223
Open positions0
Markets (closed)367 / 367
History coverage318d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 367 Trades
no open positions (192 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 08 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $36 +$26 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 08 $41 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 08 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 08 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 08 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 08 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 07 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 07 $56 −$55 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 07 $41 +$34 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$25 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 07 $29 +$26 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$23 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 07 $31 +$38 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 07 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 07 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 07 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 07 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 07 $37 +$56 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 07 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 07 $15 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 07 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 07 $36 +$36 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 07 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$17 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 07 $36 +$32 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 07 $114 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 07 $41 +$32 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$16 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 07 $31 +$39 +125%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1682 history records