Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8.0
score
48 0x4861…3aae sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$16,131 (+30%) realized +$16,131 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate68%23W / 11L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$1,585per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$674est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$131
7 days+$3,062
14 days+$10,167
30 days+$12,994
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$12,994
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +33.4% +20.7% 67% 67% +8.6%
≤30d 34 +22.9% +11.2% 68% 68% +12.4%
≤90d 34 +22.9% +11.2% 68% 68% +12.4%
all 34 +22.9% +11.2% 68% 68% +12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.2% 68% +12.4%
10% +0.5% 68% +1.6%
15% -9.2% 68% -8.2%
20% -18.1% 56% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$1,961) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,200 vs −$1,329 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16,131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses23 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$674
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage29d
Avg bet$1,585
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 24 $2,695 −$2,667 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $1,615 −$1,592 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $1,729 +$1,429 +83%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $1,298 +$1,479 +114%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $1,151 +$1,481 +129%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $1,934 +$1,475 +76%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $1,463 −$1,441 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $2,381 +$1,416 +60%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $1,061 +$1,482 +140%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $2,475 +$1,472 +60%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $1,648 +$1,477 +90%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $2,659 +$1,451 +55%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $1,662 −$1,639 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $1,537 −$1,515 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $2,344 +$1,454 +62%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $3,218 +$1,469 +46%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $778 +$961 +124%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $785 +$969 +124%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $1,216 +$1,006 +83%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $491 −$481 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $1,225 +$973 +79%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $1,305 −$1,289 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $1,725 +$942 +55%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $2,316 +$963 +42%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $1,655 +$943 +57%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 04 $1,961 +$937 +48%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $1,225 −$1,209 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $1,198 −$1,182 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $2,504 +$945 +38%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $690 +$963 +140%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 30 $1,463 +$947 +65%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $1,172 −$1,155 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 27 $858 +$977 +114%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 27 $455 −$446 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 64¢ $2,695 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 52¢ $1,080 8h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 52¢ $535 8h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 46¢ $1,298 25h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 54¢ $1,729 25h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 43¢ $1,151 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $1,934 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 49¢ $1,463 3d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 62¢ $2,381 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 41¢ $1,061 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $2,475 7d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 52¢ $1,648 7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $2,659 7d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 53¢ $1,662 8d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $1,537 8d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 61¢ $2,344 11d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 68¢ $3,218 13d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 44¢ $778 14d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 44¢ $785 14d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 32¢ $491 14d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $1,216 14d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 55¢ $1,225 17d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $1,305 18d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 64¢ $1,725 18d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 70¢ $2,316 18d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 63¢ $1,655 20d
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 67¢ $1,961 21d
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 55¢ $1,225 22d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 55¢ $1,137 22d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 54¢ $60 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records