Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:51:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x485e…1fe5 world 20 markets active 2d ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$24 (-7%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$1
other 14% −$28
weather 7% +$5
sports 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 7 -0.6% -10.1% 43% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.2%
all 20 -14.5% -22.6% 55% 5% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 5% -15.7%
10% -30.0% 0% -23.8%
15% -36.8% 0% -31.1%
20% -43.0% 0% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage476d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $49 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $99 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $2 $0 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 22 $2 $0 +3%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 27 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Robert Morris vs. Alabama Mar 21 $5 $0 -8%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 20 Mar 20 $24 +$5 +19%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 28? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 19 $4 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $16 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $16 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $26 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $16 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $41 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $37 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $45 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $49 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $50 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $50 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $50 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $50 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $0 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $2 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $0 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $2 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $27 30d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $27 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? BUY No 98¢ $1 364d
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? BUY No $0 387d
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 408d
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $2 424d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $2 424d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? BUY No 97¢ $2 438d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records