Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
48 0x485c…199e crypto 2272 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$179 (+2%) realized +$180 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%900W / 820L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day90.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,254
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 173 +29.3% +17.0% 56% 56% +13.0%
≤30d 1720 +29.0% +16.7% 52% 52% +15.1%
≤90d 1720 +29.0% +16.7% 52% 52% +15.1%
all 1720 +29.0% +16.7% 52% 52% +15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.7% 52% +15.1%
10% ← realistic here +5.5% 51% +4.1%
15% -4.7% 50% -6.0%
20% -14.0% 49% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$180
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses900 / 820
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1720 / 2272
History coverage26d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day90.8
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1720 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 52¢ 32¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$4 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$8 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$8 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$11 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$11 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 29¢ $7 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $8 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.25 · official $2.13 (match) · 3394 history records