Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:12:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x485a…21cb world 46 markets active 3h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$180,119 (-66%) realized −$148,350 · open −$31,769
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 28L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,961per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$23,613now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$6,711
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 95% −$167,258
other 3% −$4,877
crypto 2% −$1,325
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-51.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 36 -50.8% -55.5% 25% 19% -79.1%
all 38 -46.2% -51.3% 26% 21% -78.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -51.3% 21% -78.2%
10% ← realistic here -56.0% 18% -80.3%
15% -60.2% 18% -82.2%
20% -64.1% 16% -84.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$1,930) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -24% → late -68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
58.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$574 vs −$5,265 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$23,613
Realized−$148,350
Unrealized−$31,769
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)38 / 46
History coverage154d
Avg bet$5,961
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $24,728 $15,956 −$8,773 (-35%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17,965 $3,804 −$14,160 (-79%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $2,122 $1,263 −$859 (-40%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1,210 $832 −$377 (-31%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $5,598 $563 −$5,035 (-90%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1,404 $553 −$852 (-61%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1,593 $429 −$1,163 (-73%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 6¢ $762 $213 −$549 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 23 $10,711 −$6,711 -63%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $261 −$261 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3,425 −$3,324 -97%
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? May 02 $219 −$217 -99%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 29 $71,077 −$68,792 -97%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 16 $4,884 −$3,959 -81%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $48,331 −$47,788 -99%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? Apr 13 $818 −$818 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 12 $23,019 +$2,217 +10%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $7,916 −$3,361 -42%
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? Apr 12 $551 −$550 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 10 $1,058 −$7 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 09 $2,456 +$325 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 04 $266 −$266 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 04 $133 +$133 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 04 $626 −$626 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 04 $395 −$395 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 04 $278 −$278 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 04 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 04 $550 −$550 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 04 $550 −$550 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 04 $632 +$448 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 04 $187 +$67 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 04 $349 −$288 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 04 $400 −$341 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 04 $404 +$28 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 04 $817 +$1,141 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 04 $300 +$636 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 03 $32 +$17 +54%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Apr 03 $533 −$452 -85%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Apr 03 $3,732 −$3,732 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? Apr 03 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? Apr 03 $232 −$232 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-01-17? Apr 03 $1,355 −$1,355 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Apr 03 $1,930 −$1,930 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Jan 23 $500 −$38 -8%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21? Jan 21 $863 +$724 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 2h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,092 3h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $380 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $500 2d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $608 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $90 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $43 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,316 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $350 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $800 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $818 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,648 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,612.63 · official $23,612.63 (match) · 3028 history records