Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:51:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4858…0a03 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate25%11W / 33L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$2
world 26% −$1
sports 22% −$2
politics 12% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.1% -10.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.5% -9.9% 20% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 -0.5% -9.9% 20% 0% -9.4%
all 44 +0.9% -8.7% 25% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.4% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 2% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses11 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage296d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 47¢ 46¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $15 $0 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $4 $0 +6%
Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 13 $208 −$2 -1%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $35 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $6 +$2 +45%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $5 $0 -2%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12? Sep 10 $35 $0 -1%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $3 $0 -0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 28 $33 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 26 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $33 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 19h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $33 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $33 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $21 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $9 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $30 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $16 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $24 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $37 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $37 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $16 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $15 9d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $41 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $41 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.85 · official $31.85 (match) · 228 history records