Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4858…db0b other 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,110 (+0%) realized +$1,110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate18%32W / 149L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$1,321per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$28
14 days−$199
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$139
politics 32% −$108
sports 12% +$1,262
culture 4% −$14
world 3% +$36
economics 2% −$6
tech 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 48 -0.7% -10.1% 10% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 136 -13.5% -21.7% 8% 4% -9.3%
all 181 -4.5% -13.6% 18% 9% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 9% -9.1%
10% -21.8% 9% -17.8%
15% -29.4% 8% -25.8%
20% -36.3% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,004) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$9 · ×8.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized+$1,110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses32 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)181 / 182
History coverage158d
Avg bet$1,321
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $213 $213 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $4,995 −$7 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $852 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,841 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $3,588 −$4 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,002 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,349 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,301 −$4 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $908 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $3,361 −$4 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,218 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,073 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $5,328 −$6 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $1,150 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,158 −$3 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $61 −$61 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $83 −$83 -100%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,251 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $3,359 −$5 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $57 +$87 +152%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,678 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,110 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $423 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $488 +$2 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,562 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,159 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $4,590 −$6 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $242 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $753 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $2,069 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $3,758 −$5 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $782 −$1 -0%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $84 +$62 +73%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $827 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,883 −$4 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,373 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $67 +$32 +48%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $1,117 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $2,911 −$3 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1,189 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $2,910 −$4 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,445 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $2,511 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,491 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $893 1h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $895 3h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $851 42h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $852 45h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,016 45h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,018 47h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,074 47h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,076 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,001 3d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,002 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $803 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $804 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 99¢ $213 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,038 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,040 6d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $906 6d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $908 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,281 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,283 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $911 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $912 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,071 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,073 8d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,070 8d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,071 8d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,148 8d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,150 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,304 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,306 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $963 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.79 · official $212.79 (match) · 644 history records