Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:30:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4857…600e crypto 1433 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$6,220 (-24%) realized −$717 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate87%1247W / 185L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day237.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$319
7 days−$520
14 days−$717
30 days−$717
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$693
other 3% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1034 -0.6% -10.1% 87% 43% -11.9%
≤30d 1432 -0.6% -10.1% 87% 41% -12.1%
≤90d 1432 -0.6% -10.1% 87% 41% -12.1%
all 1432 -0.6% -10.1% 87% 41% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover237.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 41% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 4% -20.5%
15% -26.5% 1% -28.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$18 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$717
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1247 / 185
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1432 / 1433
History coverage9d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day237.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1432 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $81 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +15%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $81 +$10 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $81 +$10 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $81 +$16 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $81 +$18 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$7 -24%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $81 +$12 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $81 −$81 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$3 +21%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $81 −$81 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$9 -61%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$9 -46%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$11 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$18 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $81 +$15 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $15 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 13m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 17m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 22m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 27m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 28m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 31m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 37m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $15 37m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records