Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:48:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4853…0999 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (766 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$33 (+1%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$901per market
Trades / day766.0pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% $0
sports 39% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.9% -7.8% 75% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 4 +1.9% -7.8% 75% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 4 +1.9% -7.8% 75% 0% -8.8%
all 4 +1.9% -7.8% 75% 0% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover766.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 0% -8.8%
10% -16.7% 0% -17.6%
15% ← realistic here -24.7% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.1% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
96.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$901
Trades / day766.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Jun 22 $2,200 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $401 +$10 +2%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $998 +$18 +2%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 766 history records