Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
48 0x4852…d9c5 politics 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 344d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$1
sports 20% −$6
world 19% −$2
other 11% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% +$4
finance 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.2% -8.5% 75% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 +2.1% -7.6% 70% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 22 +2.3% -7.5% 50% 14% -9.4%
all 34 +1.5% -8.2% 38% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 9% -9.5%
10% -17.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

344d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage344d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $83 $83 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $134 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $87 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $234 −$7 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $167 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $98 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $159 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $80 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of May 25 above $280? May 29 $17 +$2 +12%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 27 $70 −$4 -6%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $64 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $68 +$2 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $50 +$10 +19%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 17 $34 +$5 +14%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $92 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $556 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $1,170 −$6 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $555 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $959 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $32 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 09 $98 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 09 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $144 $0 -0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jul 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Jul 09 $158 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 09 $154 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11? Jul 08 $147 $0 -0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $159 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $83 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $29 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $42 16h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $12 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $16 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $30 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $49 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $34 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $38 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $80 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $62 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $23 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $94 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $92 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $84 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $81 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $78 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $88 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $96 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $96 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.82 · official $82.82 (match) · 129 history records