Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:37:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
48 0x4852…76b5 crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate71%36W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$6
crypto 9% +$4
tech 4% +$1
politics 2% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 51 +0.3% -9.2% 71% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses36 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage525d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $51 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? Mar 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $18 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? Feb 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $24 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December? Jan 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $63 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus Sep 01 $49 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Aug 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 03 $37 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jul 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 29 $5,494 −$6 -0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Apr 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Cana Apr 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in the next Australian parliamen Apr 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio Apr 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 12 $24 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 17 $26 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 16 $29 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Kirill Kaprizov win the Hart Trophy? Mar 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $16 +$3 +18%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? Feb 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? Feb 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1? Feb 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will another model be the top AI model on January 31? Feb 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Jan 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? Jan 19 $16 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $69 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $56 30d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $27 61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $33 62d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 92d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $51 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $9 120d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $14 122d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? BUY No 100¢ $40 123d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $18 150d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $45 151d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $5 181d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $24 182d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December? BUY No 100¢ $38 183d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $13 211d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $50 212d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? BUY No 100¢ $22 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 242d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $23 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? BUY No 100¢ $34 273d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $10 302d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus BUY Yes 100¢ $49 303d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $9 334d
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? BUY No 100¢ $19 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $37 335d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 363d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $28 363d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 393d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 394d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.18 · official $69.18 (match) · 106 history records