Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:22:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x484d…8a3d crypto 646 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$76 (-3%) realized −$77 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate4%20W / 509L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day62.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$44
14 days+$143
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$66
crypto 37% +$31
other 20% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-67.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -94.5% -95.0% 1% 0% -16.9%
≤30d 529 -63.5% -67.0% 4% 3% -21.2%
≤90d 529 -63.5% -67.0% 4% 3% -21.2%
all 529 -63.5% -67.0% 4% 3% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -67.0% 3% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -70.1% 2% -28.8%
15% -73.0% 2% -35.6%
20% -75.7% 2% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$1 · ×23.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses20 / 509
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)529 / 646
History coverage17d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day62.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 529 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $41 −$3 -8%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $432 +$1 +0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $4 −$1 -22%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $14 −$1 -9%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $3 10m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $1 10m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $16 10m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 21¢ $8 10m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 74¢ $11 11m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 74¢ $4 11m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 74¢ $4 11m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 74¢ $0 11m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 27¢ $11 11m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 25¢ $10 11m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 28¢ $11 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 49¢ $71 23m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 22¢ $3 30m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 52¢ $22 31m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 52¢ $4 31m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 52¢ $53 31m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $81 31m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 27¢ $4 31m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $76 31m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $44 54m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $13 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $9 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $22 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $162 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 39¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $22 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 37¢ $7 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $11 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $77 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.34 · official $2.34 (match) · 1106 history records