Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:53:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x484c…267d world 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 319d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 33L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$10
sports 13% $0
politics 12% +$2
other 10% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
weather 3% +$1
finance 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.4% -8.3% 20% 20% -9.9%
≤30d 19 +1.2% -8.4% 42% 11% -8.6%
≤90d 19 +1.2% -8.4% 42% 11% -8.6%
all 48 +0.6% -9.0% 31% 4% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 4% -8.9%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.38 per $1 lost it wins $5.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

319d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage319d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $54 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $59 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $30 −$2 -6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $113 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $73 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $54 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $81 +$10 +12%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $55 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $3 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $47 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $152 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $37 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $58 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $53 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 28 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? Aug 11 $38 +$2 +6%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 11 $41 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 380–394 times August 8–August 15? Aug 10 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on Au Aug 10 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 08 $44 $0 +0%
Pakistan strike on India by Friday? Aug 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 06 $45 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 06 $5 $0 -1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 06 $45 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 05 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Aug 04 $59 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $57 26m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $60 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $30 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $24 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $30 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $24 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $59 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $59 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 17¢ $28 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $30 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $43 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $43 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 46h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $13 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $36 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $6 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $55 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $14 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $8 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.68 · official $2.68 (match) · 153 history records