Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:25:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5

score

48 0x484a…316a other 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d

RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2,111 (+24%) realized +$2,326 · open −$215

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip

Net edge+20%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%9W / 9L

Whale WR60%big bets

Drawdown36%max

Avg bet$439per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$72est.

Kalshi-fit45%portable

Net worth$1,985now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$2,512

7 days+$2,512

14 days+$2,512

30 days+$2,512

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+19.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+27.5%	+15.3%	47%	47%	+25.6%
≤30d	17	+27.5%	+15.3%	47%	47%	+25.6%
≤90d	18	+32.5%	+19.9%	50%	50%	+25.9%
all	18	+32.5%	+19.9%	50%	50%	+25.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+19.9%	50%	+25.9%
10%	+8.4%	50%	+13.8%
15%	-2.0%	50%	+2.8%
20%	-11.6%	50%	-7.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 54% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +33% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 60% (≥$516) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +67% → late -2% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$548 vs −$265 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage

Net worth$1,985

Realized+$2,326

Unrealized−$215

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses9 / 9

Whale WR (big bets)60%

Est. fees paid−$72

Open positions2

Markets (closed)18 / 20

History coverage66d

Avg bet$439

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown36%

Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	38¢	69¢	$1,100	$1,983	+$883 (+80%)
Japan leading at halftime?	Yes	32¢	0¢	$1,100	$2	−$1,098 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 26	$925	−$497	-54%
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime?	Jun 25	$924	+$1,099	+119%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$516	+$1,556	+301%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$265	−$257	-97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) -	Jun 25	$58	−$58	-100%
Switzerland leading at halftime?	Jun 25	$102	−$102	-100%
South Africa leading at halftime?	Jun 25	$271	−$271	-100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime?	Jun 25	$412	+$479	+116%
Germany leading at halftime?	Jun 25	$910	−$888	-98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$660	+$835	+127%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$335	−$258	-77%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 25	$206	−$16	-8%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime?	Jun 25	$293	+$369	+126%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$203	+$350	+173%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	Jun 24	$156	−$43	-27%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime?	Jun 24	$120	+$136	+114%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$142	+$77	+54%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) -	Apr 22	$27	+$33	+119%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	SELL Yes	20¢	$428	8m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	38¢	$1,131	28m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	41¢	$925	29m
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,023	31m
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	44¢	$924	1h
Japan leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	32¢	$1,133	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,072	2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	1¢	$8	2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	45¢	$265	3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	24¢	$516	3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$791	3h
Germany leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	46¢	$101	6h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime?	SELL Yes	36¢	$99	6h
Germany leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	50¢	$810	15h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	37¢	$412	15h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,218	21h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	66¢	$71	21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	9¢	$78	21h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	24¢	$279	22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	23¢	$278	22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	37¢	$88	22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	24¢	$103	22h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	SELL Yes	40¢	$190	22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	36¢	$41	22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	36¢	$206	22h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	41¢	$206	22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	24¢	$207	22h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$662	22h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	43¢	$293	27h
South Africa leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	15¢	$271	27h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,984.79 · official $1,984.79 (match) · 51 history records