Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x484a…6fa7
crypto · 43 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses42 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage38d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 1 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 12? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 4? Jun 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25? May 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 24? May 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 20? May 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 17? May 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will DualShot Recorder be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? May 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 41°C on May 13? May 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 13? May 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 11? May 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C or higher on May 10? May 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 10? May 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7? May 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 66% +$1
other 28% $0
weather 5% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $18 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $18 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $21 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $20 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $21 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $7 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $11 8d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $26 9d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $23 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $21 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 17d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $23 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $23 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $22 21d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 21d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 23d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 24d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 24d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $23 26d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $23 27d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 31 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 42 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 42 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.61 · official $20.61 (match) · 86 history records