Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:44:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
48 0x484a…754a crypto 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$115 (-5%) realized −$106 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%46W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$384now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$260
7 days−$249
14 days−$210
30 days−$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$219
politics 9% +$3
other 5% −$12
world 4% +$15
sports 1% +$12
tech 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -22.0% -29.5% 46% 38% -20.9%
≤30d 97 -1.6% -11.0% 47% 39% -18.1%
≤90d 97 -1.6% -11.0% 47% 39% -18.1%
all 97 -1.6% -11.0% 47% 39% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 39% -18.1%
10% -19.5% 31% -25.9%
15% -27.3% 23% -33.1%
20% -34.4% 20% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$384
Realized−$106
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses46 / 51
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)97 / 112
History coverage15d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 85¢ 99¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+16%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-35%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+79%)
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 51¢ 24¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-54%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-37%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Yes 73¢ 34¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-53%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June? Yes 26¢ 3¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$38 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$21 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $57 −$24 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $77 −$9 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $126 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $52 −$17 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$20 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $36 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $36 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 27 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$22 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $36 +$28 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$15 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $383.66 · official $383.66 (match) · 279 history records