Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
48 0x4849…74c2 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,157 (-11%) realized −$1,155 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate65%26W / 14L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$72
14 days+$72
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$1,259
politics 28% +$82
tech 6% +$18
other 6% +$18
sports 5% −$47
economics 2% $0
finance 1% +$1
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +13.0% +2.2% 100% 50% +6.2%
≤30d 4 +13.0% +2.2% 100% 50% +6.2%
≤90d 14 -5.1% -14.1% 79% 29% -32.2%
all 40 -11.3% -19.8% 65% 28% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 28% -22.8%
10% -27.5% 18% -30.2%
15% -34.5% 10% -36.9%
20% -40.9% 2% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$111 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$326
Realized−$1,155
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses26 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)40 / 45
History coverage116d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 81¢ 81¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 88¢ 88¢ $88 $88 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 +$6 +7%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $72 +$10 +13%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $252 +$56 +22%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 10 $32 −$32 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $1,642 −$1,390 -85%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 31 $1,434 +$92 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Mar 31 $103 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 29 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 29 $5 $0 +3%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 28 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 27 $100 +$20 +20%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 26 $783 +$36 +5%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Mar 20 $158 +$2 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 19 $993 +$6 +1%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? Mar 10 $208 +$13 +6%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 09 $209 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $591 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO3) - ESL Pro League Sta Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hillary's remarks not air? Mar 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-24? Mar 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Mar 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs ODDIK (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South A Mar 09 $86 −$55 -64%
Will MrBeast's latest video get 16–18 million views on day 1? Mar 09 $2 −$1 -57%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 09 $104 +$11 +11%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $76 +$3 +4%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M Mar 06 $199 +$10 +5%
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Mar 06 $413 −$6 -2%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 04 $77 +$23 +30%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $30 −$14 -47%
Kings vs. Lakers Mar 02 $126 +$1 +1%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Feb 26 $64 +$30 +47%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 26 $36 +$14 +40%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Feb 26 $20 +$14 +70%
Will the State of the Union be 130 minutes or longer? Feb 25 $25 +$10 +39%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24? Feb 25 $20 +$5 +25%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs Feb 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $88 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $82 17h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $72 47h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 47h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 47h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 81¢ $202 47h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 2¢ $308 47h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 47h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 2¢ $252 68d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL No 13¢ $252 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 82¢ $398 71d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL No 87¢ $398 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 82¢ $1,014 71d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL No 88¢ $220 71d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL No 88¢ $9 71d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL No 88¢ $35 71d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL No 88¢ $172 71d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL No 88¢ $118 71d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL No 88¢ $132 71d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL No 88¢ $327 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 88¢ $230 78d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 87¢ $1,400 78d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $1,525 78d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? SELL Yes 77¢ $15 78d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? SELL Yes 77¢ $5 78d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? SELL Yes 77¢ $84 78d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY No 65¢ $32 78d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY Yes 76¢ $97 80d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $326.01 · official $326.04 (match) · 270 history records