Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:54:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4849…767f sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$330 (-33%) realized −$330 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$34
14 days−$34
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$326
crypto 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-45.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -37.1% -43.1% 50% 50% -41.7%
≤30d 4 -42.8% -48.3% 50% 25% -48.8%
≤90d 11 -35.6% -41.7% 36% 18% -32.2%
all 13 -40.0% -45.7% 31% 15% -39.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.7% 15% -39.3%
10% -50.9% 15% -45.1%
15% -55.6% 8% -50.4%
20% -60.0% 8% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$55 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$330
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage94d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $48 +$12 +26%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $47 −$46 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $65 −$64 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 18 $62 +$2 +3%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $73 −$10 -14%
Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5 May 17 $72 +$1 +1%
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants Apr 25 $121 −$119 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Apr 23 $139 −$40 -28%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Apr 23 $128 +$155 +121%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 Apr 22 $55 −$54 -99%
Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5 Mar 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Kings vs. Clippers: O/U 231.5 Mar 15 $127 −$108 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 15 $9 −$4 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 62¢ $61 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $48 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $47 5h
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $65 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $64 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $62 29d
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $63 30d
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $73 30d
Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $73 30d
Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $72 30d
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 50¢ $121 53d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 37¢ $100 55d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 51¢ $139 55d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) SELL New York Yankees 91¢ $284 55d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 41¢ $128 55d
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 BUY Over 52¢ $55 56d
Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5 BUY Over 49¢ $53 86d
Kings vs. Clippers: O/U 231.5 SELL Over $18 93d
Kings vs. Clippers: O/U 231.5 SELL Over 20¢ $1 93d
Kings vs. Clippers: O/U 231.5 BUY Over 50¢ $127 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $5 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $9 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records