Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4848…0e2c other 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3051 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$124 (-0%) realized −$123 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate19%7W / 29L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$1,124per market
Trades / day3050.6pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$291now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$2
other 41% +$9
world 6% +$40
economics 1% +$20
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3051 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +4.5% -5.4% 19% 8% -9.4%
≤30d 36 +4.5% -5.4% 19% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 36 +4.5% -5.4% 19% 8% -9.4%
all 36 +4.5% -5.4% 19% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3050.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 8% -9.4%
10% -14.5% 8% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -22.7% 3% -26.0%
20% -30.3% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
44.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$0 · ×25.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.0 per $1 lost it wins $7.0
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$291
Realized−$123
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses7 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)36 / 42
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$1,124
Trades / day3050.6
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $151 $150 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,516 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 15 $119 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $348 +$19 +6%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $995 $0 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $23,268 −$2 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 15 $933 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $243 $0 -0%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $494 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $471 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $62 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $278 $0 -0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $122 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $691 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $341 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $351 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $118 $0 -0%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $156 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $79 +$21 +26%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $61 +$20 +33%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $122 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,334 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11,222 −$6 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1,081 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $130 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $197 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $20 +$20 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $20 0m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 98¢ $20 3m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $17 3m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $3 3m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $15 16m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $31 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $1 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $25 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $25 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $19 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $19 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $1 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $20 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $18 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $20 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $11 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $2 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $11 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $11 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $20 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $11 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $20 25m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $9 28m
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) SELL No 100¢ $8 29m
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) BUY No 100¢ $21 29m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $12 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.88 · official $290.88 (match) · 3500 history records