Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x4844…8dda
other · 223 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$19 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$44 · open −$25
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses88 / 134
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions1
Markets (closed)222 / 223
History coverage108d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 1 History 222 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$375
7 days+$374
14 days+$269
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will George Russell achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 41¢ 21¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-49%)
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
FC Fredericia vs. Vejle BK: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Randers FC vs. Odense BK: O/U 3.5 Under 73¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Pistons 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $196 $0 −$196 (-100%)
Will Vejle BK win on 2026-04-13? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-04-26? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) Tiafoe 8¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Spread: Sønderjyske Fodbold (-1.5) Brøndby IF 49¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? No 46¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-04-20? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-25? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Sønderjyske Fodbold vs. FC Nordsjælland: Both Teams to Score No 36¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? No 8¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) Magic 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-12? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons Pistons 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $23 −$23 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $15 +$38 +246%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $31 +$85 +276%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 +$152 +303%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 +$19 +116%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 +$13 +62%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Lando Norris achieve the fastest lap in Practice 2 at the 2026 F1 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -91%
Will George Russell achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 Jun 12 $9 +$7 +79%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 +$66 +259%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $89 $0 +0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $57 +$58 +101%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $46 +$11 +23%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 11 $26 +$21 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $42 −$1 -2%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $5 −$3 -52%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 04 $106 −$104 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $44 +$62 +140%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $199 −$196 -99%
Sweden vs. Greece: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $101 +$44 +44%
Spread: Panama (-2.5) Jun 04 $68 −$67 -98%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $31 −$11 -36%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $178 +$51 +29%
Spread: Wales (-1.5) Jun 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $61 +$54 +88%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $17 +$28 +162%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $61 −$44 -72%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $41 +$30 +74%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 02 $20 +$16 +81%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) Jun 01 $11 −$11 -97%
Austria vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $15 +$31 +199%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 01 $51 +$82 +160%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5) Jun 01 $20 −$17 -84%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) May 31 $33 +$19 +58%
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 May 31 $60 −$16 -26%
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $5 −$2 -35%
Germany vs. Finland: Both Teams to Score May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $60 −$60 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 31 $51 +$52 +103%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $59 +$45 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 59% +$34
other 38% +$5
politics 2% −$12
crypto 1% +$3
world 1% −$8
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Russell achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 BUY Yes 41¢ $51 35m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $23 56m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $53 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $15 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $115 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 95¢ $0 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 95¢ $53 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 95¢ $149 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $31 2h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 23¢ $50 5h
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $31 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $35 7h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 47¢ $33 8h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 8h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $20 9h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 9h
Will Lando Norris achieve the fastest lap in Practice 2 at the 2026 F1 SELL No 1¢ $0 11h
Will Lando Norris achieve the fastest lap in Practice 2 at the 2026 F1 BUY No 10¢ $5 11h
Will George Russell achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $9 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $92 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 65¢ $89 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 64¢ $89 24h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 3¢ $0 25h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 16¢ $26 29h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $115 30h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 49¢ $57 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $57 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $46 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +33.1% +20.4% 55% 50% +52.6%
≤30d 72 -8.2% -16.9% 39% 38% -5.6%
≤90d 185 -21.5% -29.0% 34% 33% -9.6%
all 222 -12.6% -20.9% 40% 38% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 38% -8.7%
10% -28.5% 37% -17.5%
15% -35.4% 34% -25.4%
20% -41.7% 30% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.33 · official $25.33 (match) · 446 history records