trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 13 | -4.7% | -13.7% | 62% | 38% | -9.9% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -4.7% | -13.7% | 62% | 38% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 21 | +4.2% | -5.7% | 76% | 43% | -8.7% |
| all | 21 | +4.2% | -5.7% | 76% | 43% | -8.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.7% | 43% | -8.7% |
| 10% | -14.7% | 24% | -17.4% |
| 15% | -23.0% | 10% | -25.4% |
| 20% | -30.5% | 10% | -32.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 91¢ | 90¢ | $199 | $198 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? | Yes | 82¢ | 82¢ | $45 | $45 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Spread: Spain (-3.5) | Spain | 87¢ | 94¢ | $36 | $38 | +$3 (+7%) |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 91¢ | 99¢ | $20 | $22 | +$2 (+8%) |
| Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 99¢ | $20 | $21 | +$1 (+4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Spain (-1.5) | Jun 21 | $30 | +$3 | +11% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by June 30? | Jun 21 | $30 | +$3 | +10% |
| Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Jun 21 | $101 | +$84 | +83% |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 21 | $151 | −$69 | -46% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $22 | +$5 | +25% |
| Spread: Brazil (-2.5) | Jun 20 | $160 | +$8 | +5% |
| Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 | Jun 20 | $20 | −$13 | -65% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $165 | +$19 | +12% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? | Jun 18 | $26 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $20 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 18 | $10 | +$1 | +11% |
| Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 18 | $80 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $45 | −$45 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? | May 13 | $256 | +$4 | +2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | May 13 | $9 | +$2 | +27% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap | May 01 | $12 | +$1 | +9% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | May 01 | $1 | +$1 | +61% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | May 01 | $4 | +$1 | +32% |
| Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | May 01 | $110 | +$2 | +2% |
| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeti | Apr 28 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Apr 24 | $22 | +$4 | +16% |