trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+10%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $42 | +$3 | +6% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 09 | $27 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 09 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 08 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 08 | $4 | $0 | -5% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | Jun 07 | $43 | $0 | -1% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 07 | $17 | $0 | -2% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 06 | $2 | −$1 | -51% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 06 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 05 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 05 | $29 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | -10% |
| Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | Jul 14 | $0 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Rumble buy TikTok? | Jun 27 | $8 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 05 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 20 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? | Apr 19 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8? | Mar 21 | $6 | +$3 | +45% |
| Will "Wicked" win Best Production Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Mar 02 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will "Wicked" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards? | Mar 02 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Sharks vs. Maple Leafs | Mar 02 | $8 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 3? | Mar 02 | $16 | −$9 | -54% |
| Will "Magic Candies" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Mar 02 | $17 | −$1 | -6% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 22% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -3.7% | -12.9% | 15% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -3.7% | -12.9% | 15% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 26 | -2.6% | -11.9% | 27% | 4% | -10.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.9% | 4% | -10.9% |
| 10% | -20.3% | 4% | -19.4% |
| 15% | -28.0% | 4% | -27.2% |
| 20% | -35.1% | 0% | -34.3% |