Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:23:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x483e…6bcc
politics · 14 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$6 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)3 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 11 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $19 $14 −$5 (-28%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.8–0.9%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$19 +1845%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 79% −$9
other 10% −$4
culture 5% $0
sports 3% +$19
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+486.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +548.2% +486.5% 33% 33% +267.9%
≤30d 3 +548.2% +486.5% 33% 33% +267.9%
≤90d 3 +548.2% +486.5% 33% 33% +267.9%
all 3 +548.2% +486.5% 33% 33% +267.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +486.5% 33% +267.9%
10% +430.3% 33% +232.7%
15% +379.1% 33% +200.6%
20% +332.1% 33% +171.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.45 · official $22.45 (match) · 16 history records