Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:12:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x483d…3209 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,733 (-30%) realized −$2,085 · open +$352
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%14W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$572now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$116
14 days−$1,914
30 days−$1,805
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$922
sports 26% −$511
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -63.1% -66.6% 33% 33% -89.3%
≤30d 45 -17.4% -25.3% 31% 31% -39.6%
≤90d 45 -17.4% -25.3% 31% 31% -39.6%
all 45 -17.4% -25.3% 31% 31% -39.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 31% -39.6%
10% -32.4% 27% -45.4%
15% -39.0% 27% -50.6%
20% -44.9% 20% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$85 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$572
Realized−$2,085
Unrealized+$352
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses14 / 31
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage23d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $200 $555 +$355 (+178%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-10%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $14 +$2 +11%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 −$97 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $123 −$120 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $166 +$97 +59%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$14 -14%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $95 +$34 +36%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $113 +$47 +42%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $54 −$54 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $237 −$232 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$18 +57%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $793 −$775 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,607 −$164 -10%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $299 −$193 -65%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$92 +596%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $493 −$484 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$232 +114%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $140 −$97 -69%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $175 −$143 -82%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $96 −$8 -9%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Bermuda win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Aruba win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Will El Salvador win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $70 +$9 +13%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $82 +$35 +43%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $101 +$86 +85%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $204 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $14 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 7d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $263 7d
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 7d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 69¢ $115 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $88 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 73¢ $86 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 73¢ $9 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 8d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $54 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $90 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $82 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $87 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $147 8d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $48 8d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 8d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $793 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 71¢ $691 9d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $106 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 76¢ $752 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 55¢ $752 9d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $32 9d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $267 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $571.94 · official $571.94 (match) · 87 history records