Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:02:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x483b…304a other 160 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,774 (-1%) realized −$1,774 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate16%25W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,627per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$19
14 days−$51
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$132
other 40% +$51
sports 10% −$1,703
world 5% −$26
culture 3% −$8
economics 2% −$7
tech 1% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 41 +2.3% -7.5% 7% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 107 -11.4% -19.8% 5% 4% -10.5%
all 159 -1.3% -10.7% 16% 8% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 8% -10.2%
10% -19.2% 8% -18.8%
15% -27.0% 8% -26.6%
20% -34.2% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,086) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$19 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized−$1,774
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses25 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 160
History coverage143d
Avg bet$1,627
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $272 $272 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,415 −$5 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $4,081 −$6 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,876 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,491 −$4 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $2,589 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,704 −$4 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $2,709 −$4 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,575 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $3,254 −$5 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $1,614 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $5,067 −$6 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,606 −$4 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $50 +$65 +129%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $5,803 −$6 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 04 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,916 −$4 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $76 +$60 +79%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,292 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $4,308 −$5 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,679 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,049 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,218 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 27 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,516 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $5,818 −$6 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $1,518 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $3,064 −$4 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,370 −$2 -0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $86 +$77 +90%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,547 −$2 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 23 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 23 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,512 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $67 +$65 +97%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $2,963 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? May 19 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,328 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $1,534 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $529 25m
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $530 1h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,023 3d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,024 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $845 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $846 3d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,045 3d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,047 4d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,039 5d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,040 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,059 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,061 5d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,341 6d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,343 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,347 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,349 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,341 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,343 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,346 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,348 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,341 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,343 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,350 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,352 10d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,244 10d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,246 10d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,354 10d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,356 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,354 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,356 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.80 · official $271.80 (match) · 530 history records