Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:00:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x4838…e97e
crypto · 79 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
+$6 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$116
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses76 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage226d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 2 History 77 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $113 $113 −$0 (-0%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 95¢ 93¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $109 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $300 in May? Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 04 $6 +$3 +47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? Jun 04 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 21 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 5? May 07 $107 $0 +0%
Will Tesla reach $555 in April? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 2? May 04 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 27? Apr 29 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 19? Apr 26 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 17? Apr 19 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 13? Apr 16 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $108 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? Apr 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 29? Mar 30 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 24? Mar 25 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 10? Mar 16 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 07 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 05 $108 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Mar 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? Mar 01 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 24? Feb 25 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 21? Feb 22 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 17? Feb 19 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 15? Feb 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 13? Feb 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on February 7? Feb 08 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on February 3 Feb 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 1? Feb 01 $89 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $38 in January? Feb 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? Feb 01 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 26? Jan 27 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on January 24? Jan 24 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on January 22? Jan 22 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 19? Jan 20 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 16? Jan 17 $93 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% +$7
other 2% +$3
tech 0% $0
politics 0% −$5
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $113 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $108 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $113 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $109 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 22d
Nothing Ever Happens: May BUY Nothing 68¢ $6 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $102 33d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $300 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $107 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 2? BUY No 100¢ $102 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $98 46d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $101 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $102 56d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 61d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? BUY No 98¢ $5 62d
Will Tesla reach $555 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $108 66d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $102 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $102 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $105 80d
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $108 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $108 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 10? BUY No 100¢ $106 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 8? BUY No 100¢ $107 96d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $106 97d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $108 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $108 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +7.0% -3.2% 100% 14% -9.0%
≤90d 25 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 4% -9.3%
all 77 -0.3% -9.8% 99% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.4% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.22 · official $116.22 (match) · 159 history records