Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
48 0x4837…00fa other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$5 (+2%) realized +$20 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$64
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$3
sports 12% +$7
world 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +66.9% +51.0% 75% 75% +63.7%
≤30d 6 +11.3% +0.7% 50% 50% +4.2%
≤90d 6 +11.3% +0.7% 50% 50% +4.2%
all 6 +11.3% +0.7% 50% 50% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 50% +4.2%
10% -8.9% 50% -5.8%
15% -17.7% 50% -14.9%
20% -25.8% 50% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$16 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)6 / 13
History coverage9d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 35¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 10¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-73%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$29 +95%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $8 +$7 +93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$29 +97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 06 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 06 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 49m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 35¢ $10 57m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 2h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $15 11h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 47h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 17¢ $15 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- SELL 26¢ $8 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- BUY 29¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 9d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $8 9d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $8 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.88 · official $49.89 (match) · 17 history records