Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:42:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4836…b7c1 crypto 1381 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,181 (+2%) realized +$1,178 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate60%861W / 563L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day92.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$288
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 -34.0% -40.3% 50% 28% -37.4%
≤30d 1424 -1.5% -10.8% 60% 37% -12.8%
≤90d 1424 -1.5% -10.8% 60% 37% -12.8%
all 1424 -1.5% -10.8% 60% 37% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 37% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 23% -21.2%
15% -27.2% 14% -28.8%
20% -34.3% 9% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$1,178
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses861 / 563
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1424 / 1381
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day92.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 54¢ 60¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 312 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$27 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$15 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$43 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$31 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $46 +$4 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $30 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $45 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $34 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $37 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $44 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $24 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $48 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $47 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $49 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $24 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $49 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $45 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $46 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $49 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $48 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $48 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $41 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $44 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.95 · official $26.05 · 3500 history records