Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4835…a592 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$43 (-23%) realized −$27 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -13.3% -21.6% 50% 50% -36.8%
≤30d 6 -13.3% -21.6% 50% 50% -36.8%
≤90d 6 -13.3% -21.6% 50% 50% -36.8%
all 6 -13.3% -21.6% 50% 50% -36.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 50% -36.8%
10% -29.1% 33% -42.8%
15% -35.9% 33% -48.3%
20% -42.2% 17% -53.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner LYON 50¢ 100¢ $62 $123 +$61 (+100%)
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner RED Canids 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner RED Canids 22¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Gen.G 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) KT Rolster 51¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$4 +18%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $8 +$10 +126%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$11 -43%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$15 -72%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 12 $18 −$18 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 50¢ $62 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 53¢ $5 2h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY RED Canids 20¢ $5 4h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY RED Canids 23¢ $8 4h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL RED Canids 10¢ $5 4h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY RED Canids 18¢ $10 4h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 90¢ $15 5h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 41¢ $7 5h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 52¢ $9 5h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 42¢ $8 5h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 1¢ $2 5h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $17 11h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 43¢ $8 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 67¢ $5 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 67¢ $5 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 58¢ $5 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 37¢ $5 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 60¢ $1 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 33¢ $5 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 47¢ $8 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 53¢ $10 13h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Top Esports 8¢ $6 14h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 27¢ $20 14h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 51¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.11 · official $123.11 (match) · 25 history records