Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4833…5dae crypto 40 markets active 5d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-8%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$14
world 5% −$7
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -28.5% -35.4% 48% 44% -21.8%
≤30d 40 -27.3% -34.3% 48% 45% -24.8%
≤90d 40 -27.3% -34.3% 48% 45% -24.8%
all 40 -27.3% -34.3% 48% 45% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.3% 45% -24.8%
10% -40.6% 30% -32.0%
15% -46.3% 15% -38.6%
20% -51.6% 12% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage8d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$4 +79%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records