Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:42:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
48 0x4833…74bf crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$39 (-1%) realized −$23 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$349
7 days−$141
14 days−$236
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$533
other 29% +$544
sports 26% +$296
politics 3% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +43.4% +29.7% 33% 33% -22.0%
≤30d 19 +35.8% +22.9% 32% 32% -28.6%
≤90d 39 +22.6% +10.9% 36% 36% -0.6%
all 39 +22.6% +10.9% 36% 36% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.9% 36% -0.6%
10% +0.3% 36% -10.1%
15% -9.4% 36% -18.8%
20% -18.3% 31% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$57 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)39 / 53
History coverage41d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $57 $51 −$6 (-11%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Juan Manuel Cerundolo 20¢ 20¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-10%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $26 +$50 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $56 −$56 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 20 $84 −$48 -58%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Jun 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 20 $136 −$112 -82%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Jun 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi Jun 20 $26 +$273 +1063%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 19 $51 +$27 +53%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $38 +$42 +109%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $46 −$8 -18%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$86 +169%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $35 +$86 +247%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets in May 2026? May 19 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $108 −$20 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 19 $12 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 19 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 19 $12 +$13 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 19 $12 +$9 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 18 $49 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 18 $101 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 18 $105 −$40 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 17 $20 +$28 +140%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $48 −$47 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 17 $44 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 17 $103 +$56 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 17 $120 +$80 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 17 $92 +$35 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $104 +$854 +818%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 20¢ $24 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 17¢ $52 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 100¢ $76 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 33¢ $26 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) BUY 21¢ $20 6h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: France BUY 7¢ $26 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 21¢ $14 9h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: France BUY 7¢ $38 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 20 BUY 38¢ $25 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-2 BUY 2¢ $67 47h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi SELL 94¢ $299 47h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi BUY 8¢ $26 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $56 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $25 3d
Spread: Canada (-3.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $77 3d
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Canada 65¢ $51 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Canada vs. Qatar: O BUY 24¢ $26 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $38 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL 17¢ $38 4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY 20¢ $46 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score A BUY 13¢ $29 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $58 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $137 5d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 89¢ $121 5d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 25¢ $35 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $51 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will BUY 20¢ $99 6d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 46¢ $97 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.09 · official $166.91 · 93 history records