Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:58:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
48 0x4832…026e sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$314 (+11%) realized +$313 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days+$407
14 days+$291
30 days+$291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$115
other 29% +$407
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.7% -8.0% 67% 67% +5.8%
≤30d 16 -15.1% -23.2% 56% 56% +0.5%
≤90d 16 -15.1% -23.2% 56% 56% +0.5%
all 16 -15.1% -23.2% 56% 56% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 56% +0.5%
10% -30.6% 38% -9.2%
15% -37.3% 38% -17.9%
20% -43.4% 25% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$90 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$313
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage8d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$205 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $201 −$152 -76%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$25 -81%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$13 +13%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $201 +$43 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $201 +$34 +17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $504 +$190 +38%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $304 +$188 +62%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $154 +$145 +94%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $92 +$34 +37%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $93 −$90 -97%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 22¢ $48 16h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $201 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $203 30h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria $6 31h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $30 33h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $101 33h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $100 36h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $201 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $101 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $201 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $504 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $304 4d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 50¢ $31 6d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 51¢ $31 6d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 50¢ $31 6d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 50¢ $31 6d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 50¢ $31 6d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 70¢ $31 7d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 71¢ $31 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $31 7d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 74¢ $31 7d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom BUY Charles Broom 29¢ $31 7d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom BUY Charles Broom 29¢ $31 7d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Victoria Mboko 41¢ $31 7d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom BUY Charles Broom 63¢ $31 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.94 · official $100.94 (match) · 36 history records