Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:17:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
48 0x482c…cbe8 sports 681 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$372 (-3%) realized −$405 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate62%415W / 253L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$169
7 days+$418
14 days+$418
30 days+$371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$40
other 21% −$293
crypto 1% −$27
world 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +14.9% +4.0% 83% 66% +2.2%
≤30d 89 +12.3% +1.6% 81% 64% +0.7%
≤90d 213 -0.0% -9.5% 69% 60% -9.2%
all 668 -3.8% -12.9% 62% 59% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 59% -11.5%
10% -21.3% 47% -20.0%
15% -28.9% 34% -27.7%
20% -35.9% 23% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized−$405
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses415 / 253
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions5
Markets (closed)668 / 681
History coverage162d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 668 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Under 80¢ 88¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Over 85¢ 100¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+18%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Under 65¢ 70¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+8%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 61¢ 100¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+64%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 0.5 Over 67¢ 100¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 215 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $25 +$28 +111%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 +$10 +42%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $220 +$10 +4%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $50 +$3 +6%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $50 +$5 +10%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 +$5 +50%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $65 +$8 +12%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $131 +$21 +16%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $139 +$13 +10%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 0.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: Jun 26 $101 +$41 +40%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $25 +$6 +24%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $30 +$4 +13%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $50 +$5 +10%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $125 +$5 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -66%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $25 +$8 +30%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $15 +$2 +16%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $15 +$5 +32%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $20 +$3 +13%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $25 +$6 +24%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $50 +$7 +13%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $176 −$18 -10%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 +$8 +27%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $90 +$5 +5%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $110 +$15 +14%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 −$5 -26%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 −$2 -76%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $50 +$6 +12%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$4 +18%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $20 +$4 +20%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $50 +$5 +10%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U Jun 25 $13 +$17 +128%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 +$5 +46%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 24 $40 +$5 +12%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $101 +$23 +23%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $40 +$19 +48%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $25 −$4 -14%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $4 $0 +2%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $5 +$6 +124%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $50 +$21 +42%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $70 +$10 +14%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $15 +$5 +32%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5 +$7 +129%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $100 +$5 +5%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $7 +$2 +32%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $10 +$5 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $30 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $30 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $15 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $7 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 81¢ $12 3h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $20 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 70¢ $25 3h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 91¢ $50 3h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $50 3h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $200 3h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 10h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $10 10h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $15 10h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $20 11h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $24 11h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $65 11h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY 26¢ $8 11h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY 47¢ $25 11h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 11h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $100 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 17h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 BUY 29¢ $5 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 27h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 86¢ $7 27h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 91¢ $50 27h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 27h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $25 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.94 · official $217.74 (match) · 1265 history records