Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:49:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x482b…3266 sports 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (211 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$42,184 (+37%) realized +$42,071 · open +$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate19%36W / 152L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,260per market
Trades / day211.3pace
Fees−$382est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$12,069now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% +$1,548
other 25% +$319
sports 17% −$6,844
world 16% +$270
politics 11% −$4
tech 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (211 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -56.7% -60.8% 8% 6% -29.8%
≤30d 188 -34.7% -40.9% 19% 11% -21.8%
≤90d 188 -34.7% -40.9% 19% 11% -21.8%
all 188 -34.7% -40.9% 19% 11% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover211.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.9% 11% -21.8%
10% -46.6% 10% -29.3%
15% ← realistic here -51.7% 9% -36.1%
20% -56.5% 8% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
20.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$156 vs −$133 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$12,069
Realized+$42,071
Unrealized+$113
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses36 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$382
Open positions20
Markets (closed)188 / 91
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$1,260
Trades / day211.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4,398 $4,302 −$96 (-2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $2,992 $3,053 +$60 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2,196 $2,256 +$60 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $951 $955 +$4 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $478 $472 −$6 (-1%)
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 87¢ 88¢ $400 $407 +$7 (+2%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $149 $180 +$31 (+21%)
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 34¢ 49¢ $115 $167 +$52 (+45%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Yes 32¢ 21¢ $123 $81 −$42 (-34%)
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $61 $75 +$14 (+24%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $33 $38 +$5 (+15%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $10 $28 +$18 (+189%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No 96¢ 96¢ $23 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$2 (+18%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+58%)
Anthropic acquired before 2027? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+39%)
Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 138 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? Jun 15 $7 +$2 +22%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 15 $124 −$124 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Roun Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Jun 15 $325 −$325 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leagu Jun 15 $178 −$178 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Jun 15 $367 −$367 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DRX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qual Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Jun 15 $17 +$205 +1202%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs MIBR (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 15 $129 −$129 -100%
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Chal Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 5? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Forsaken vs DOCISK (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Pump.fun airdrop in Q3 2025? Jun 15 $144 −$142 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 15 $91 −$108 -119%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Regular Seas Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jun 15 $0 +$130 +955088%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs DRX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Q Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
LoL: DOCISK vs devils.one (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group A Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Winthrop University (BO3) - North American Challen Jun 15 $91 −$91 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $112 −$112 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO3) - LFL Playoffs Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Re Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo Jun 15 $258 −$258 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken (BO5) - Rift Legends Playoffs Jun 15 $112 −$112 -100%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 15 $126 −$126 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Fennel vs REJECT (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 15 $4 −$6 -146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $47 1m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $453 2m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 3m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $49 4m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 5m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 5m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $386 5m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 6m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $20 8m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $121 9m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 13m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $54 13m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $15 14m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 14m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 16m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $103 16m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $17 17m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 21m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $139 22m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $117 34m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 35m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 36m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 37m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 39m
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 43m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $46 46m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $155 48m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $946 48m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,069.07 · official $12,069.07 (match) · 3500 history records