Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4829…97eb weather 1177 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,052 (-1%) realized −$1,101 · open +$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate67%844W / 411L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day51.6pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,591now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% +$272
sports 4% −$786
crypto 3% −$549
other 3% −$576
politics 1% −$5
world 0% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 186 -41.4% -47.0% 45% 10% -14.7%
≤30d 727 -10.8% -19.3% 69% 17% -10.0%
≤90d 1255 -10.4% -18.9% 67% 21% -11.4%
all 1255 -10.4% -18.9% 67% 21% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 21% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 13% -19.8%
15% -33.8% 9% -27.6%
20% -40.2% 6% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$40 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$1,591
Realized−$1,101
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses844 / 411
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1255 / 1177
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$139
Trades / day51.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Yes 91¢ 97¢ $500 $535 +$35 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? No 54¢ 64¢ $300 $355 +$55 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Yes 88¢ 96¢ $300 $328 +$28 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? No 89¢ 100¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? No 87¢ 97¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Yes 95¢ 87¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Yes 15¢ 30¢ $30 $58 +$28 (+94%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 205 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 6? Jun 17 $56 −$69 -123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 7AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 5? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$37 -480%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C or higher on April 9? Jun 17 $149 −$149 -100%
Will FC Fredericia win on 2026-04-13? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 6? Jun 17 $13 −$33 -259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 January 26-1? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 9m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 39m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $103 40m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $101 44m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 57m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $101 58m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $101 58m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 10¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $214 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $203 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $105 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $100 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 98¢ $100 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $100 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $100 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $100 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $100 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $212 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 2¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $102 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 53¢ $102 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,591.43 · official $1,591.43 (match) · 3500 history records