Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:17:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4824…479a world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate42%17W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% $0
other 17% −$1
sports 4% +$1
politics 3% $0
economics 2% +$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.2% -8.4% 30% 10% -9.8%
≤30d 21 -0.4% -9.9% 38% 5% -9.8%
≤90d 21 -0.4% -9.9% 38% 5% -9.8%
all 40 -1.6% -10.9% 42% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 8% -9.6%
10% -19.5% 5% -18.2%
15% -27.2% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage487d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $61 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $48 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $14 −$2 -15%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $33 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 +26%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $148 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $28 +$1 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $32 −$1 -2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $18 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $6 −$2 -25%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $13 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $30 $0 +1%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 02 $1 $0 -21%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Knicks vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 10 $11 −$1 -7%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 09 $7 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 09 $1 $0 +36%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 08 $10 $0 -4%
Starmer out before July? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $12 $0 +4%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 30 $11 $0 -1%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $12 $0 +0%
Gonzaga vs. Washington State Mar 04 $11 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $29 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $29 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 10h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $31 15h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $31 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $7 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $9 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $12 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $28 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 34h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $16 36h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $6 36h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $12 36h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $34 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $21 45h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $10 45h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $34 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $34 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $34 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $33 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records