Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:36:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4824…0be2 crypto 333 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,407 (-9%) realized −$4,400 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate57%188W / 144L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$590est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$180
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days−$3,301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$5,158
crypto 34% −$152
other 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +11.9% +1.2% 64% 52% -9.0%
≤30d 123 -2.7% -12.0% 61% 37% -17.7%
≤90d 332 -10.7% -19.2% 57% 37% -19.2%
all 332 -10.7% -19.2% 57% 37% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 37% -19.2%
10% -26.9% 25% -26.9%
15% -34.0% 16% -34.0%
20% -40.4% 9% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$75 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$4,400
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses188 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$590
Open positions1
Markets (closed)332 / 333
History coverage86d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 332 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mayar Sherif Sarah Rakotomanga 18¢ 12¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $63 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $123 +$31 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $153 +$63 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $63 +$21 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $24 +$26 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $49 −$47 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $104 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $156 +$18 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $63 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $132 +$34 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $64 +$521 +818%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $295 −$290 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$51 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $185 +$171 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $99 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $210 +$235 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $255 −$16 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $156 +$37 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $72 +$71 +98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $151 +$19 +13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$132 +43%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $163 −$162 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $483 −$462 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $125 +$65 +52%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $408 +$176 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $417 +$78 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $516 +$125 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $367 −$350 -95%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $1,003 −$372 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $296 −$30 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $105 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $415 +$155 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $262 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $140 +$39 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $467 +$33 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $67 +$7 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $68 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $42 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $101 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $91 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $52 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $32 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 9m
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mayar Sherif BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 18¢ $20 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $216 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $84 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $21 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $50 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $24 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $182 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $165 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $68 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.25 · official $16.01 · 1333 history records