Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:35:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4823…644c weather 1312 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$781 (-8%) realized −$781 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -90% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -92% what you keep after slip
Net edge-92%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate1%15W / 1274L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day36.3pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$826
other 20% −$205
world 12% −$51
politics 5% −$11
finance 4% −$6
tech 1% −$6
weather 1% −$41
crypto 0% −$17
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-91.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +55.2% +40.4% 29% 29% -8.6%
≤30d 7 +55.2% +40.4% 29% 29% -8.6%
≤90d 1289 -90.1% -91.0% 1% 1% -20.8%
all 1289 -90.1% -91.0% 1% 1% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -91.0% 1% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -91.9% 1% -28.3%
15% -92.7% 1% -35.3%
20% -93.4% 1% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -90% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -96% → late -84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$1 · ×27.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$781
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses15 / 1274
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions22
Markets (closed)1289 / 1312
History coverage85d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day36.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 1289 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for CF Montréal next? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+785%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for Columbus Crew next? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+270%)
Will Aljamain Sterling be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Will Caleb Malhotra be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+500%)
Will Joshua Van be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for D.C. United next? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-65%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Denver Broncos next? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Jason Clark win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Will Sonay Kartal be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Will Liam Ruck be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Alessandro Di Iorio be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-88%)
Will Ethan Belchetz be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Will Adam Nemec be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Mathis Preston be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Alberts Smits be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Giorgos Pantelas be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Alexander Command be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Niklas Aaram-Olsen be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Jack Hextall be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Santos Matheus Cunha win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will Ilya Morozov be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 478 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 −$214 -42%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $335 −$251 -75%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $402 +$92 +23%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $86 +$450 +524%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $133 −$47 -35%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $133 −$11 -8%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 15 $2,280 −$955 -42%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 15 $65 −$2 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $70 −$2 -3%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Apr 15 $390 −$4 -1%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 14 $25 −$3 -13%
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $370 −$52 -14%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 13 $325 $0 -0%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $18 $0 -2%
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5) Apr 11 $591 −$1 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 11 $50 −$2 -4%
RB Leipzig vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to Score Apr 11 $227 +$3 +1%
FC Barcelona vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Apr 11 $225 −$5 -2%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Apr 11 $49 −$1 -2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 11 $425 −$22 -5%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 11 $199 −$4 -2%
Spread: Warriors (-11.5) Apr 10 $164 $0 -0%
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? Apr 10 $10 $0 -4%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 10 $34 −$1 -2%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $65 −$7 -11%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? Apr 10 $140 −$11 -8%
Will Logan Thompson win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy? Apr 10 $0 $0 +100%
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamb Apr 10 $87 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 10 $266 −$12 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $174 −$3 -2%
Madrid: Joel Schwaerzler vs Roman Safiullin Apr 09 $670 −$10 -2%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 09 $138 −$3 -2%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 09 $156 −$4 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $70 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 71 and 72 million views on day Apr 09 $82 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 09 $188 −$1 -0%
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30? Apr 09 $6 $0 -8%
Kash Patel out by April 30? Apr 09 $3 $0 -6%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 9? Apr 09 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 9? Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 8? Apr 08 $48 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 4? Apr 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 4? Apr 04 $0 $0 -100%
Map 3: Odd/Even Total Kills? Apr 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 4? Apr 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 4? Apr 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C or higher on April 4 Apr 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on April 4? Apr 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 4? Apr 04 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 52m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $54 52m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $234 58m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $233 59m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $454 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $30 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $402 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 35h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $535 36h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $86 37h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 51¢ $86 37h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 77¢ $133 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 91¢ $131 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $131 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $122 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $133 2d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Dplus KIA 11¢ $146 62d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 88¢ $1,173 62d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Dplus KIA 86¢ $1,178 62d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 80¢ $1,106 62d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? SELL Yes 31¢ $63 62d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 62d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? BUY Yes 32¢ $64 62d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $68 62d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $70 62d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Red Force 77¢ $203 62d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Red Force 78¢ $16 62d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Red Force 78¢ $167 62d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Red Force 78¢ $1 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.90 · official $0.90 (match) · 3152 history records