Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:04:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4822…6ad0 other 234 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%5W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$30
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$39
sports 23% −$21
politics 10% −$10
culture 7% −$7
crypto 6% −$5
economics 4% −$3
world 4% −$3
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 233 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses5 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)233 / 234
History coverage136d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $237 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 26 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 26 $119 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 25 $267 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $460 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $352 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 25 $374 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 25 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 25 $776 −$2 -0%
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 25 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 24 $429 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $44 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 24 $358 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 23 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 23 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $201 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $520 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $278 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $447 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 22 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $95 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $262 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $168 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $566 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 21 $184 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $274 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $239 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $268 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $286 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $166 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $178 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $645 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $172 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $165 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $334 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $434 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $312 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 3m
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $42 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $42 3h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $42 8h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $42 10h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $42 10h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $43 11h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $43 13h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $43 14h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 17h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 18h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $43 20h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $43 22h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 26h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 28h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 29h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 30h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $43 32h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $43 34h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 35h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 36h
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 38h
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 39h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $43 42h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $43 44h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $43 45h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $43 47h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 2d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $44 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.17 · official $42.17 (match) · 1435 history records