Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:27:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4822…a435 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$116 (-11%) realized −$116 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$116
other 10% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-42.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -36.4% -42.5% 22% 22% -17.4%
≤30d 9 -36.4% -42.5% 22% 22% -17.4%
≤90d 9 -36.4% -42.5% 22% 22% -17.4%
all 9 -36.4% -42.5% 22% 22% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.5% 22% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -48.0% 11% -25.3%
15% -53.0% 11% -32.5%
20% -57.6% 11% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$29 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $107 $108 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $90 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 25 $117 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $262 −$86 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $165 +$18 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $130 −$25 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $171 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $87 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $84 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $112 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 2h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $107 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.53 · official $107.53 (match) · 32 history records