Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:27:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
48 0x4821…00d7 other 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate46%44W / 51L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$18
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$13
politics 23% +$3
sports 19% +$3
other 19% +$1
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
weather 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.6% -10.1% 50% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 21 -0.9% -10.4% 43% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 33 -1.2% -10.6% 39% 0% -9.6%
all 95 +1.2% -8.5% 46% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 2% -9.5%
10% -17.2% 1% -18.2%
15% -25.2% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.5% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses44 / 51
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)95 / 97
History coverage469d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $141 $141 +$0 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $214 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $145 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $158 −$5 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $86 −$5 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $11 $0 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $162 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $156 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $319 −$6 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $446 +$3 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $492 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $391 −$8 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $136 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $322 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $168 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $167 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $152 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $12 −$2 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $169 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $309 +$5 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $64 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $162 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $11 $0 -4%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $64 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $127 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 23 $1 $0 -16%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $49 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $989 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $1,971 +$3 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,085 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,083 +$1 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jun 26 $14 $0 +2%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 09 $8 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $8 $0 +5%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $5 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 10 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 08 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw May 08 $1 $0 -1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Ukraine lowers conscription age before May 9? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $141 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $140 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $140 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $133 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $133 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $124 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $30 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $158 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $12 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $70 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $51 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $35 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $163 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 97¢ $162 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $9 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $162 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $162 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $37 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $110 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $148 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $136 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $26 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.51 · official $140.60 (match) · 370 history records